9:45 p.m. ET, April 29

A big opportunity has presented itself, so I will be posting much less often for the foreseeable future.

Regarding Friday’s market activity, I was shocked that the Dow did not plunge. While it’s true that the stop-loss level of just over 13,300 has not been reached and thus this position remains active, I consider Thursday’s call to be a miss. Whether or not this position produces gains is probably what counts the most but being accurate has always been the priority for me, so I’ll count it as a miss but will continue to maintain my bearish position unless and until the Dow breaks above the 13,300 level.

11:00 p.m. ET, April 26

Please scroll down one post and read my comment of 4:35 p.m. Wednesday (April 25). I wrote the following:

“If the Dow remains above the 13,000 level all day tomorrow and closes in the green, the major Sell signal (strength level of 90%) will be generated. I will be busy for most of the day tomorrow and might not be able to post an update intraday, so take the bolded line above as being concrete.”

The Dow did indeed fulfill the stated requirement and thus generated a major Sell signal at the close Thursday. The Dow will close lower on Friday and beyond. Of this, I am absolutely certain.  I initiated a quadruple bearish position at Dow 13,204.  I’m sure it won’t come into play but it’s always wise to have a stop-loss level, and mine will be just over 13,300 in this case.

I predicted months ago that the Dow would “hover around the 13,000 level” until my system generated a Sell signal, and THEN tank. It took its sweet time, but that is exactly how it has played out. In the words of Bruce Springsteen, starting tomorrow (Friday) the Dow will be “going down, down, down.”

4:35 p.m. ET, April 25

Alright, it looks like the Dow is ready to play ball. Other than one intraday requirement, all that remains for the Dow to do to get that major Sell signal at tomorrow’s (Thursday’s) close is to close higher than it did today, even if just by a penny. If the Dow remains above the 13,000 level all day tomorrow and closes in the green, the major Sell signal (strength level of 90%) will be generated. I will be busy for most of the day tomorrow and might not be able to post an update intraday, so take the bolded line above as being concrete.  This is one of the beauties and rarities of this system:  it allows me to know not just before the close but the entire day before what the Dow must do the next day in order to generate a signal.  It lets me see it coming from a mile away.

Additionally, there is a second major Sell signal setting up for next week, so the Dow could be in for some serious trouble in the immediate future.

1:30 p.m. ET, April 25

A lot can happen between now and the close, but so far today’s market activity has set us up beautifully for that major Sell signal to be generated tomorrow (Thursday). So long as the Dow can hold on to its gains today, it will just need the slightest amount of follow-through strength tomorrow to get the signal.

I have found that the market often seems to have not only a great memory but even a sense of humor. To wit, if the system does indeed generate that Sell signal tomorrow, it would be on almost the same day as last year’s pre-summer-freefall closing high for the Dow (April 29, 2011), and the exact day of the previous year’s (April 26, 2010). Can the pattern hold? If we get that Sell signal tomorrow, I will be betting very heavily that it does. Stay tuned.

1:30 p.m. ET, April 24

My bullish position in DNDN is contributing more gains. You will recall that I recently turned bullish at $9.10 and closed out the position the next day at $10.10 for a gain of 10% in just one day (much more for the call options, of course).

All along I have continued to maintain the bullish position initiated at $10.30 (see previous posts, all in real-time) and now that position is also up over 10%. Am not even thinking about turning neutral yet, see much more upside to come. That said, for those who didn’t take advantage of the recent weakness and turn bullish at $10 or lower, I would not initiate a bullish position up here in the $11′s but rather would wait for a pullback. Better to miss a trade than chase one. For those who joined me in turning bullish at $9-10, congrats and enjoy the gains.

1:25 p.m. ET, April 24

Another strong Sell opportunity setting up for as early as Thursday. Notice how each time a strong sell set-up has failed to materialize, the market has failed to drop very far and has bounced right back up after just a day or two of losses. I said months ago that I thought the Dow would “hover” around the 13,000 area until a strong Sell signal materializes, and THEN drop hard. Thursday might be the day. Stay tuned.

7:45 p.m. ET, April 22

I will be out all day Monday but will post an update late Monday night or early Tuesday.